Summary:
- The United States aims to decrease nett greenhouse gas emissions by 61-66% from pre-2005 levels by 2035, as declared by the White House on Thursday. The objective signifies the nation’s revised Nationally Determined Contribution towards achieving nett zero in accordance with the Paris Agreement.
- The White House declared that it has officially submitted the target to the United Nations Climate Change Secretariat, revising a target established by President Joe Biden in 2021 upon his inauguration.
- The nation is unlikely to meet its 2021 objective of lowering emissions by 50-52% by 2030, as indicated by several forecasts regarding its nationally defined contribution.
Insightful Analysis:
As President-elect Donald Trump assumes office in January, having campaigned on withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, the White House stated in its formal submission that “the actions of subnational and Tribal governments will be critical” to achieving the objective.
The White House stated that the target range positions the nation “on a direct or accelerated trajectory to attain net-zero greenhouse gas emissions across the economy by no later than 2050.” The strategy was established based on a review of how each economic sector can stimulate innovation, create new possibilities, enhance competitiveness, and reduce pollution, according to the release.
The announcement stated, “Various avenues exist to achieve these objectives, and U.S. federal, state, local, territorial, and Tribal governments possess numerous instruments to collaborate with civil society and the private sector to stimulate investment in the forthcoming years while fostering a more robust and equitable economy.”
The White House stated that, alongside localities assuming greater responsibility in combating climate change, achieving the new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) necessitates collaboration and communication between the public and private sectors, including the exchange of best practices and efforts to synchronise implementation across jurisdictions and entities.
The White House’s submission to the UN stated, “Extensive involvement in the development, implementation, and assessment of emissions reduction measures will be crucial in achieving the target.”
The nation aims to decrease its methane emissions by 35% by 2035, relative to 2005 levels, to achieve its overarching greenhouse gas emissions objective. Although the U.S. did not establish sub-targets for individual greenhouse gases, it designated a percentage for methane emissions reductions, asserting that “reducing methane emissions is one of the most expedient methods to mitigate near-term warming and is a crucial complement to carbon dioxide mitigation,” as stated in its UN submission.
The White House stated in its UN submission that among the “multiple paths” available to the U.S. for achieving its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) are increased investments and technological innovations facilitated by the private sector or sub-national and Tribal governments. The White House stated that the U.S. can achieve its 2035 objective through collaboration among sub-national and Tribal governments, civil society, and the private sector, while utilising existing federal programmes and robust federal legislation to meet the targets.
The U.S. achieved its initial Paris Agreement Nationally Determined Contribution of reducing economy-wide emissions by approximately 17% by 2020; however, it is not on course to meet its 2030 objectives. This occurs despite the facilitative impact of legislation such as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act on the acceleration of the clean energy transition.
Following the enactment of the IRA, projections indicated that the nation may potentially reduce its emissions by almost 40% by 2030. Recent projections by BloombergNEF and Rhodium indicate that the country is poised to achieve reductions of only 22% and 30% by the decade’s conclusion, respectively.
The UN has urged nations to establish ambitious objectives for the forthcoming round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which are officially due next year. A recent report cautioned that, at the current rate, the aim of restricting global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius “will be unattainable within a few years.” The Emissions Gap report, published in October, indicated that global governments must collectively pledge to reduce annual emissions by 42% by 2030 and by 57% by 2035 to achieve the 2050 objectives.
The report stated, “The forthcoming NDCs must achieve a significant increase in ambition alongside expedited mitigation efforts within this decade.”
